RaceDayCT Poll: Who Will Win The 2023 Whelen Modified Tour Championship

Comments

1. Fifield Fan Club President says

   June 15, 2023 at 12:40 pm

   No option for Fifield?
2. Doreen Ann Taylor says

   June 15, 2023 at 4:07 pm

   Doug Coby to win.
3. Henry Lecomte says

   June 16, 2023 at 6:03 am

   If Big Money runs the rest of races it’s a no brainier he and PeeDee team are definitely a stout team.
4. wmass01013 says

   June 16, 2023 at 12:19 pm

   And how many races has Mr No brainer won at NHMS, RIVERHEAD, THOMPSON??? and i am Not saying Matt Hirschman is not a GREAT top 10 all time driver but saying him winning a WMT titlle is a no brainer when How Many WMT titles does he have???

   And also the 01 jokes have gotten real old, she has chosen her path and so be it.

   My money still on JBON, him and Ryan Stone over the long haul are tough to beat!!
5. Shawn Courchesne says

   June 16, 2023 at 1:15 pm

   Henry,

   Just looking at things from a statistical average point of view for 2023 so far. So let’s assume the eight drivers currently in the top eight in points (except for Hirschman) run all 19 events and Hirschman runs 18 events.

   Current average points earned per event
   Ron Silk 41.7
   Justin Bonsignore 41
   Austin Beers 38.2
   Doug Coby 37.8
   Jon McKennedy 36.2
   JB Fortin 34.7
   Matt Hirschman 39.8
   Kyle Bonsignore 33.2

   Using average points earned per race to break out an expected points earned for 19 events, and 18 events for Hirschman would look like this:

   Ron Silk 792.3
   Justin Bonsignore 779
   Austin Beers 725.8
   Doug Coby 718.2
   Jon McKennedy 687.8
   JB Fortin 659.3
   Matt Hirschman 716.4
   Kyle Bonsignore 630.8

   So if you just base things on current average points accumulated per events, Hirschman would likely finish fifth in the standings.

   Now obviously average points earned is going to fluctuate, though being essentially one third of the way through the season sets a good baseline. The problem I see for Hirschman in going from seventh in the points to championship contention is the combination of short fields and lack of competitive teams at the back end of the field. So for the current frontrunners, even a “bad day” typically means typically finishing from about 13th to 20th. That doesn’t allow for a driver deep in the standings to take big bites out of the deficit of the frontrunners when their “bad days” might mean someone like Hirschman only gaining 15-20 points on them in an event.

   Another statistical point that doesn’t bode well for a Hirschman championship. There have been six events this year, so that means there have been 30 possibilities to finish in the top-five in events this year. Of those 30 top-five spots that have been available in 2023, 19 have been collected by the current top-five in points (Silk, J. Bonsignore, Beers, Coby & McKennedy). So five series regulars have accounted for almost one third of the top-five finishes in 2023. And 23 of those top-five spots have been taken by the drivers in the top-seven in points, including Hirschman. So 77 percent of the available spots in the top-five this year have been taken by just seven drivers. Statistically, if the same seven drivers continue to dominate the top-five in events over the final 13 events – event if Hirschman is part of that group of seven – there’s likely no way he can even get close to challenging for the championship.
6. 😷 😷 😷 darealgoodfella 😷 😷 😷 says

   June 16, 2023 at 5:34 pm

   Well, when you consider that recent championships have been determined by just a few points, bonus points have been crucial, and that Hirschman missed a race, and that there are still three races at Thompson and NHMS (where Hirschman does not do well at all because he’s a itty-bitty teeny-weenie bullring specialist), there’s no chance he can win a championship. He’d have to finish probably top-3 for all races, earn most bonus points, no mistakes, and hope that all cars ahead of him in points have a couple DNFs. That team is not that good.