Planning a trip has always had an enemy: the weather. Sometimes, it can be more accessible, like assuming it will be sunny in August in Sicily. Other times, it is a gamble, like hoping it won’t rain in London. Sometimes, it is a hopeless endeavour, like those set out in the monsoon season.
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Current situation
What will become of us tourists on our crowded August holidays, strolling under the scorching sun, constantly looking for a place in the shade? Never before have we wished for it as we dragged ourselves through the streets on scorching July and August days, trying to survive the onslaught of yet another heat wave. But how much will the rise in temperatures affect the next tourist choices? An article in The New York Times tries to make the point by imagining the future of European tourism, starting precisely from Italian destinations, which are increasingly caught in the grip of the great and unbearable heat.
Will we choose alternative destinations, perhaps preferring Stockholm to Rome? Will we delay or anticipate our holidays by a few weeks, if not even a couple of months, to avoid the suffering of the hottest periods, which have become so aggressive as to annihilate any holiday enthusiasm?
This could be the case, especially since this year’s exceptional heat should not be considered an exception but only the beginning of a trend marked by extreme weather events.
A recent study also confirms this Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more persistent double jets over Eurasia, published in Nature, which identifies Europe as a hotspot for heatwaves, with trends increasing three to four times faster than the rest of the northern mid-latitudes over the past 42 years.
In this context, Northern Europe and, in the short term, the ‘last chance’ destinations, those in danger of disappearing, could benefit from the new tourism trends.
Consequences for European tourism
Before the pandemic, many annual overnight stays were concentrated in mountain areas, while foreign tourists’ spending on mountain holidays in 2019 amounted to almost € 9 billion.
Rising winter temperatures result in a shorter ski season and a shift of the natural snow line to higher altitudes. Lack of snow, reduced snow cover and inadequate snow depth lead to fewer visitors and less revenue.
A 1°C increase in temperature would endanger all ski resorts by about 50% in the most affected region. The repercussions would be less significant for some, where winter tourism is less critical, and for places where the ski resorts are located at higher altitudes. All this is in a context where hotels and restaurants have already seen prices rise in 2023.
If climate change also affects tourism: cold destinations will boom in 2024
The tourism industry is highly exposed to the direct effects of climate change, such as rising sea levels and rising temperatures. It is threatened by indirect impacts such as changes in water availability and the spread of certain diseases.
Rising sea levels will have profound and multiple impacts on coastal tourism, with consequences for beach conservation, but not only: storms with winds, waves, rain and storm surges may disrupt transport, electricity and water supplies that the tourism industry relies on.
Rising temperatures could drive tourists away from the Mediterranean, and most wine-producing regions could become less suitable for growing grapes; with implications for food and wine tourism, higher temperatures could multiply forest fires, making them even more intense in some parts of the world.
Variable snowfall, receding glaciers and milder winters will affect tourism in winter sports areas in Europe and North America, and changes in biodiversity will also affect eco-tourism.
Increasingly warmer seasons due to climate change are driving people to choose trips to ‘cold destinations’. The top places are rich in water, where the heat is more bearable!
Travelling with CBD
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